ECON2101 · Group Presentation
MTR Fare Elasticity, 2015–2025
25/26 · Semester A
Abstract
This presentation estimates the own-price elasticity of MTR ridership using typhoon-day service disruptions as an instrument, and reports estimates across six sub-samples.
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Transcript excerpt
…our identification strategy exploits typhoon-day service suspensions as a source of variation in effective fares per completed trip. The first-stage F statistic is 41.2, above conventional weak-instrument thresholds; we also report Anderson–Rubin confidence intervals, which contain zero only under the most conservative sub-sample. Our preferred point estimate for the own-price elasticity is negative 0.34, with a standard error of 0.08. We do not claim this generalises to bus or ferry demand. On the demand system as a whole, we treat the cross-price terms as under-identified and report them only in the appendix. We recognise the presentation is dense; we chose to prioritise being right over being memorable…
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Slides
Slide 1 · Title
Slide 2 · Identification
Slide 3 · Estimates
Slide 4 · Robustness
Rate this presentationFour sliders, four short justifications — about five minutes.